Lev's Good Ideas: Don't Launch a Memecoin: Take One Over
A bad idea done well is a good idea
Today's Lev's Good Idea takes a bad idea and flips it: the get-rich-quick scheme of memecoins.
Sure, memecoins sound stupid and evil. But also: does it seem like betting against stupid and evil things is the way to go right now? Or do you think maybe stupid and evil things are a good bet in the market?
In Lev's Good Ideas, we don't judge; we win. And to win the memecoin, I believe that launching a memecoin is a bad idea.
Stealing one is better. And there's no coin more ripe than a takeover than "Hawk Tuah."
A DISCLAIMER
As a reminder, I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. I am an amateur, a thinker of ideas, some of them satirical. Do not do any of this.
Similarly, I hold about $250 worth of present-day "Hawk Tuah" coin, which was both necessary to test the system's functionality and my understanding of the mechanisms, and also really funny to do.
THE CONTEXT
For the blissfully normal readers, let me explain: a meme coin (also spelled memecoin) is a cryptocurrency (think Bitcoin) that has no real worth: it's a joke, designed to get people to think it's funny and speculate. That speculation is a gamble, and, with most gamblers, the house tends to win.
It sounds stupid because it is stupid.
Again: you're not missing anything. Memecoins don't do anything but exist to be bet on. You could release something tautological, something that doesn't do anything or even pretend to. You could call it "FartCoin" if you wanted.
And if you did, you'd be rich: FartCoin is worth $300M at time of publication.
Of course, for every successful memecoin, there are a thousand busts that are both ignored and despised. The launch is difficult, and every X.com account is barraged with would-be hustlers pitching the next project.
Given that it's impossible to successfully launch a project which cuts through the noise, it makes sense to hijack a dead one: in doing so, you reframe your position.
You aren't the schemer: you're the fun witty pranksters. You are subverting a memecoin project: compared to launching one, this funnier and friendlier.
To carve out the right coin to hijack, you need an infamous, recognizable, and extremely inexpensive memecoin to take over.
Fortunately, there's one right there.
THE PITCH
I believe Hawk Tuah coin, the infamous crypto rugpull, is a tremendous opportunity for purchase. From its peak at $490m, the widely recognized IP now has an absurdly low market cap of less than $20k.
Intriguingly, the coin itself has not dissolved after the launch and crash: it is fully available for purchase with a few impersonators in the field.
And yet, the interest remains: the momentary meme turned would-be media empire of the Hawk Tuah girl turned crypto-currency remains a must-follow event with every twist and turn.
This is where things get interesting: we have a worthless memecoin that is a must-follow for publicity in the Web3 ecosystem––even without any financial excitement, for a total deadweight project.
My proposal: rather than take the risk of launching a new memecoin with earned media potential, a bold group launches a takeover of the most memed memecoin––with earned media already aligned for it.
THE PROOF
A personal disclosure: for less than $250 of present-day $USD, I currently own 14M of a billion possible Hawk Tuah coins; this means I presently own about 1.5% of the entire market cap of a widely-known coin for the cost of an inexpensive plane-ride. At market peak, this would’ve been worth around $7M––a vicarious little thrill of what this could really mean.
I used a Phantom wallet, which is the industry standard not only for memecoins but increasingly for the next-generation of Web3 users: the experience was superior to legacy exchanges like Gemini and Coinbase, which also means there's an easy on-road to purchase should a secondary bull-run occur.
But speaking of what this really means; what did my purchase mean within the Hawk Tuah environment?
Here is a daily chart identifying my purchase, which I made in two segments: the first, a purchase of ~8.8M and the second of ~5.2M.
Notice how my tiny purchases, done just to amuse myself and test the functionality of my thesis, single-handedly soared the daily chart and meaningfully impacted the weekly chart as well.
Next, observe how the second, smaller purchase raised the coin price more than the initial, larger purchase. This is because the prices compound.
Because the coin marketplace is so low, tiny cash purchases meaningfully adjust the chart––making it extremely easy to create an enormous percentage-spike.
So: we have a super-ripe, super-known, super-media friendly coin that is tremendously undervalued, in which any cash infusion could conceivably bring about a spike that earns trust and buy-in.
THE THEORY
The math is there; but the story is even better.
There are a few potential angles: some of them are mutually exclusive, some of them reinforcing.
Given the media coverage of the project, the PR angle is far easier than any net-new project. For 100k of investment and media, a crypto prankster could potentially gain control of a project and story that, at one time, was worth nearly 500M.
Here are a few potential storylines that could algin.
A Hostile Takeover
There is hostility towards Hailey Welch and the Hawk Tuah coin rugpull; the community “reclaiming” this now that the founders have cashed out is vengeance upon them.
Here, the figurehead could be a rallying persona: a hero (or anti-hero) looking for attention, for laughs, for joy or vengeance.
Someone, somewhere, is desperate enough for attention to do this even in a losing battle. Owning multiple news-cycles in crypto is a value-prop even beyond speculation.
Who wants this crown? Justin Sun? The FTX guy? The Onion? Clickhole? Elon Musk?
A community-minded bailout
Anyone buying Hawk Tuah coin can position themselves as a positive friend bailing people out of a rugpull; cashing out scammed people for their “worthless” asset builds positive sentiment in the space.
This is good news for everyone in crypto, and something that could be well-covered. Similarly, if even “Hawk Tuah” coin gets a later-spike
Any crypto person who wants good press could say “I’m buying all of Hawk Tuah coin for $1M to bail out anyone still holding.”
The project would skyrocket and the would-be buyer would profit in goodwill, regardless of economic circumstance.
A Gamestop-style “dumb money” prank
This is the stupidest thing that could ever happen. But we're in the stupidest time to ever happen: that's appealing to someone.
The absurdity of it is maddening. It's funny. It's ironic, it's psychotic. To get people to rally, months later, behind a now universally despised scam?
This could be dumb money. Fun money.
Money.
What better, funnier, post-ironic angle would it be to go back to a dead meme, now taken over by the community itself?
An absurd "can you believe it?" comeback
People love a comeback, and they love a story. Kickstarting the improbable, inexplicable return of Hawk Tuah coin is simply funny.
People love a second chance and framed as “good for the scammed” folks who still have worthless Hawk Tuah coin makes it positive and feel-good.
Besides that, every crypto hustler on earth should want in on this positive outcome: if Hawk Tuah coin, an infamous scam, has a sudden, unexpected spike upwards after months of flat defeat, then anything can happen––and any "scam" could be explained away with "hey, Hawk Tuah coin went back up!"
Giving an absurd comeback is good for the ecosystem and space. Clever hustlers should support the story.
(Disclosure: this is not financial advice and I hold about $250 worth of ‘Hawk Tuah’ coin based on current market price. I share good ideas that are occasionally satirical in nature. If there are still laws, please don’t get me in trouble with them.)