Your Guide to the 2025 NBA Playoffs
Your guide to everything except gambling
With the 2025 NBA playoffs about to start in earnest, I thought I'd give my primer: here are the teams ranked by likelihood of winning, my take, and what to expect so you can follow along.
My tiers go as follow for chances to win
Oklahoma City Thunder, Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers: likely candidates (70% collective chance)
Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, New York Knicks, Golden State Warriors (20% collective chance)
Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Houston Rockets (7% collective chance)
Indiana Pacers, Milwaukee Bucks, Orlando Magic (2.5% collective chance)
Detroit Pistons and other technically-participating teams (0.5% collective chance)
Here’s what to watch for and talk about so you can sound as smart as me.
1) Oklahoma City Thunder
Key Players: SGA, scoring champion. Chet Holmgren, defensive anchor.
Play Style: Well-rounded with a deep roster of defensive standouts. SGA is a terrific defender, and everyone seems to be above average.
Why They Can Win: They’re a young team but still have some playoff experience from last year’s run. They have the best record in basketball and arguably the best individual player.
Why You Should Care: If they're going to start a dynasty, now is the time to start. Plus they are the "best" team around: if you're a purist, you're a fan.
2) The Boston Celtics
Key Players: Jayson Tatum, lead scorer and anchor. Kristaps Porzingas, an often-injured scoring savant and 7-foot white guy. Jaylen Brown, sidekick to Tatum. Derrick White, facilitator. Payton Pritchard, spark-plug and 3-point shooter.
Play Style: Well rounded with a deep roster of scorers with an emphasis on 3-point shooting. Everyone is above average.
Why They Can Win: They won last year and it wasn’t especially close: they didn’t get much better or worse this year. They fumbled some odd games throughout the regular season, though: optimists call it a fluke, a hangover. Pessimists may see cracks.
Why You Should Care: Boston, baby! And, as last year's champions, a repeat is exciting. Every title is historic: two makes you serious and historic.
3) The Cleveland Cavaliers
Key Players: Donovan Mitchell, key scorer. Darius Garland and Evan Mobley, defensive anchors who can score.
Play-Style: Fundamental, well-rounded, deep.
Why They Can Win: The East is easier than The West, and the Cavs have home-court advantage against all comers, even the rival Celtics. The path to The Finals isn’t so hard for them. If they can make it through that path, they win it all.
Why You Should Care: This is a good team, without much respect. Cleveland hasn't won since LeBron was here and their star, Donovan Mitchell, has never won before.
4) The Los Angeles Lakers
Key Players: Luka Doncic, one of the best scorers ever and a defensive liability and LeBron James, a well-rounded superstar even at 40. Austin Reaves has gone from "fine" to "quite good" which is a critical third piece.
Play Style: Heliocentric, they play around stars. If Luka, LeBron, and to a lesser extent Austin Reaves explode for a star-level performance, they win. If not, they don't. Shallow, top-heavy team.
Why They Can Win: Luka is one of the best players, and motivation has been a concern for him. Well, he’s motivated now, having been traded from his career-long franchise in Dallas. LeBron has been doing terrific at age 40. Austin Reaves provides the much-needed third-scorer as well.
Why You Should Care: How couldn’t you? This is the narrative heavyweight: two of the biggest stars in the game, united in their quest. Luka has never won it all, and another LeBron title is a cherry on top for his legacy.
5) The Los Angeles Clippers
Key Players: Kawhi Leonard, a superstar who is almost always injured yet finally healthy and James Harden, an almost-superstar who has never won it all. Ivan Zubac, their center, is also having a breakout year.
Play Style: Heliocentric, but dynamic: they cooperate more than the Lakers, who let their stars take over.
Why They Can Win: The team is an odd, off-brand parallel to The Lakers: two superb stars (Kawhi, Harden) and a suddenly-improved third-option (Zubac) that was desperately needed. But they’re more of a “Trader Joe’s” off-brand than a Wal-Mart one: they’re truly good, truly hot, and capable of shredding anyone.
Why You Should Care: The Clippers have been a joke when they were bad and even a joke when they were good: they always seemed to get bounced in the first round. They finished this year red hot and look locked-in. A first-ever Clippers title would be historic too.
6) The New York Knicks
Key Players: Jalen Brunson, a beautiful player who scores like Rondo: old-school and poetic. A joy to watch. Karl-Anthony Towns, (aka "KAT") who is a tall scorer and center. O.G. Anuby is a defensive anchor and Josh Hart, a famously rough-and-tumble everyman who always seems to do something important and exciting.
Play-Style: Fluid, for better and worse, and a bit heliocentric. When they're winning, it's naturalistic. When they're losing, it's maddening. Their coach famously doesn't believe much in drawing up plays or subbing players in and out.
Why They Can Win: We’re at the point in the list where I start to go “well…” before I explain that they can win. We’re out of the “1-in-8” odds now, entering the “1-in-20” odds. But the Knicks can win because they’re good enough to hang in with any team at their best. But they’ll need to be at their best, all the time, and some luck on the side.
Why You Should Care: They're a good team and the New York Knicks are fun. But they also went all-in, mortgaging their future for a short window when they are only the 6th-best team in the playoffs. It's now or never, and it leans to never: which makes the "now" so critical.
7) The Golden State Warriors
Key Players: Steph Curry, 3-point legend. Jimmy Butler, legendary in the playoffs and traditionally a Celtics-killer.
Play-Style: Heliocentric. Relying on talent and luck: Curry shoots threes, Butler bullies his way in. They also have some other players, allegedly, but nobody seems to know or care.
Why They Can Win: They have a great coach, a superstar player, and frustratingly good luck: their path towards the Finals takes them through the comparatively weak Rockets, then a matchup against The Lakers or Timberwolves, both of whom they match up well against. Scheduling gifts them a chance and they have the talent to cash that in.
Why You Should Care: If Steph Curry wins another title, surpassing LeBron James with his 5th, the conversation of all-time greats will shift again. Also, Im sick of these guys and they got a famous Celtic killer who I am also sick of in Jimmy Butler. I hate these guys, but that hate has respect. I am glad they are only the 7th-best team here, but I am angry they are that high.
I was going to end it here, but just in case: here are some honorable mentions for teams that technically could surprise and make a play to The Finals, even if they’re unlikely to win it all.
If a team didn’t even make the honorable mentions list, they can safely be ignored in the playoffs. Sorry!
The Denver Nuggets: Nikola Jokic remains arguably the best player in the NBA, but his supporting caster (Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr, Aaron Gordon) have taken a step back, and the league has adjusted to them. They’re worth a mention, not a section.
The Minnesota Timberwolves: They’re capable of upsetting The Lakers in the first round––but then what? They were a real contender last year, but inexplicably traded Karl-Anthony Towns to The New York Knicks for Julius Randle. That set them back in a hyper-competitive Western Conference.
The Houston Rockets: Led by former Celtics coach Ime Udoka, the Houston Rockets are young and impressive and a #2 seed. But they have a bad first-round matchup against The Warriors, likely followed by The Lakers and then OKC. A tough road for a young, untested team that never overwhelmed.
The Indiana Pacers: A talented, workmanlike team that upset the New York Knicks last year, The Indiana Pacers have a few above average players in Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner. They are capable of beating a better team in the playoffs with the right luck.
The Milwaukee Bucks: A team decimated by the injury to Dame Lillard, they still have Giannis Antetokounmpo, a true force of nature. I am including The Bucks purely out of respect to his individual and singular talent, so that he does not avenge himself upon The Celtics later.